Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:要闻)
- 申报成功无需缴款是什么意思
- 比特儿币交易平台官网
- rvn币最新行情价格-rvn币价格今日行情
- 元宝网是怎么回事
- 比特币创历史新高,获利回吐迫在眉睫——是时候采取行动了吗?
- 火币网交易手续费明细
- K33 報告:資金費率指標預示加密市場未來幾週將觸底反彈
- 涨停揭秘 | 电广传媒5连板涨停,封板资金5.83亿元
- Celestia宣布集成Hyperlane为其原生互操作性解决方案
- 涨停揭秘 | 艾能聚首板涨停,封板资金281.08万元
- 評價區塊鏈瀏覽器,鏈上偵探 ZachXBT 稱多個 L1 鏈仍缺乏好用的分析工具
- 去中心化交易所排行 2025DEX去中心化交易所排名
- 下载USDT手机钱包_top10主流货币APP排名合集
- oex官网下载app(智能交易,轻松赚BTC)
- 火币官网下载
- 比特币apk官网版v7.1.6下载2023-芝麻交易所比特币交易所最新版下载
- dash币交易平台
- 以太经典钱包哪个好用-以太经典钱包哪个好用点
- Coinbase Prime将于6月14日进行系统升级暂时下线
- 高德红外发生1笔大宗交易,卖方为机构席位
- 数字货币交易平台app views+
- 欧亿交易所怎么样。 views+
- okx交易所app官网链接 views+
- okx网页版 views+
- 全球三大虚拟货币交易平台 views+
- 欧亿app官网正式版下载 views+
- 数字货币交易所 views+
- OK交易所官网入口登录 views+
- okcoin下载官方app views+
- ok币 views+